Would defeat for the Voice be the end for Albanese? Not on these numbers

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Voters are not convinced when Anthony Albanese assures them the Indigenous Voice is only a “modest request” to change the Constitution because many believe it is a big change they cannot support.

Yet they are shifting back to the prime minister on key personal measures after drifting away during the past few months – which means the referendum is not a wave that sweeps the Coalition towards power.

Forty-seven per cent of voters nominated Anthony Albanese as their preferred prime minister in October, compared with 25 per cent for Peter Dutton.Credit: Fairfax

So voters are shrugging their shoulders at the message about the Voice at the same time as they nod their heads at the messenger about the way he is running the country.

Labor has increased its primary vote from 36 to 37 per cent over the past month and the Coalition has tumbled from 34 to 31 per cent, so the aversion to the Voice is yet to trigger a craving for the conservatives.

Asked to nominate their preferred prime minister, 47 per cent name Albanese and only 25 per cent favour Peter Dutton, so the opposition leader has not gained a personal dividend from his ferocious arguments on the referendum. Albanese had a much smaller lead of 43 to 28 per cent one month ago.

In fact, voters seem to be warming to Albanese again. The number of voters who say he is doing a good job has risen from 40 to 43 per cent over the past month, while the number saying he is doing a poor job has fallen from 47 to 43 per cent. This means his net performance rating is no longer negative.

Dutton, however, has returned to a net performance rating of minus 15. The number who think he is doing a good job has fallen from 35 to 30 over the past month, while the number saying he is doing a poor job has risen from 43 to 45 per cent.

Could the shift in support help Albanese rescue the Voice? This looks highly unlikely on the numbers revealed in this Resolve Political Monitor, which used a very large number of respondents to produce results with greater precision than standard monthly surveys.

While voters have given the first sign in more than six months that they can step across the line to supporting the Yes case, the movement is too feeble to suggest a victory on Saturday.

While other polls seem to hint at a late recovery for the Yes side, the Resolve Political Monitor shows a gain of only 1 per cent. This is just not enough when support has tumbled from 64 per cent in September last year to 44 per cent this month.

What would it take for Yes to win? The answer is in the “soft” vote for the Yes and No sides – the 9 per cent who say they will probably vote No and the 10 per cent who say they will most likely vote Yes.

“To get to 50 per cent nationally, the Yes camp need to retain all of the 10 per cent soft vote on their side, which they have been unable to do to date, and then win over two-thirds of the 9 per cent soft vote on the No side,” Resolve director Jim Reed says.

“And then they need to gain even more to get over the line in at least four of the states, including NSW and Victoria.

“That’s not impossible, but to achieve that by bucking every trend we’ve seen over the last year would be a most unlikely scenario.”

Whatever the result, the recriminations over the referendum will continue long after the ballots are counted.

Albanese will have to answer for the outcome on Saturday night. He made the call on election night last year to commit to the Uluru statement in full. He owns the decision to seek a referendum on the concept of the Voice without offering much detail on its size, how it would be elected or how it would be run.

Dutton, also, will have to bear the responsibility if the Voice is defeated when he has failed to set out any path to fixing Indigenous disadvantage other than an audit of spending.

The Liberals clearly hope to defeat the Voice, maximise pressure on Albanese and drive Labor out of power or into minority government at the next election. The latest survey, however, shows that voters can reject the Voice and turn against Dutton at the same time.

The challenge for the Yes case is clear in this latest survey. While 95 per cent of respondents are aware of the Voice, 57 per cent say they struggle to explain it.

No campaigners raise the spectre of the Voice as a vast bureaucracy or a “third chamber” of parliament that interferes in government and divides Australia by race. The vague nature of the Voice has made it easier for opponents to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.

This brings the debate back to the prime minister’s assurance that there is no need to worry about this “modest request” from Indigenous leaders. The latest survey finds that only 23 per cent of voters believe this. Another 44 per cent think it is an important and significant change.

Everyone can see the contradiction. How can it be a modest change when it is meant to achieve so much?

So the core message is not working. With days to go, the main hope for the Yes campaign is that voters are still listening to the messenger.

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